July 2025 Market Report: Why the Headlines Don’t Tell the Whole Story

It’s easy to feel uncertain about real estate right now. News reports talk about inflation, stalled interest rate cuts, and trade tensions — all of which can sound like reasons to wait.

But real estate is local, and perspective matters.

A recent Globe and Mail article summed up the issue well: while Canadian steel and aluminum are being hit by U.S. tariffs, the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) is doing what it was designed to do — protect the broader economy.

In fact, the average U.S. tariff rate on Canadian goods remains under 4%. That’s far from a trade war — and unlikely to cause any real shock to Canadian housing markets.

So while the headlines may stir anxiety, the local numbers tell a more balanced story:

July 2025 Snapshot – Oakville, Burlington & Milton

Detached Home Prices – July 2025

Detached homes continue to lead the way in terms of value and activity, especially in Oakville’s luxury segment.

️ Other Key Segments

• Townhomes (Attached/Row):

  • Oakville: $1.1M avg

  • Burlington: $927K avg

  • Milton: $918K avg

• Condo Apartments (Median Prices):

  • Oakville: $651K

  • Burlington: $520K

  • Milton: $567K

• Condo Townhouses & Semis:

  • Offering strong value for those seeking more space.

What This Means for Buyers & Sellers

While many people are letting fear guide their decisions, the fundamentals of the Halton market remain solid:
✅ Strong buyer demand
✅ Stable pricing
✅ Low risk of major economic fallout from tariffs

This kind of market rewards confidence backed by strategy. With fewer competitors and balanced inventory levels, the door is open for smart, well-prepared buyers and sellers.

Want to Explore Your Options?

Whether you’re moving, investing, or just evaluating your next step — I can help you make sense of the numbers and move forward with clarity.

Weekly Real Estate Market Snapshot: Oakville, Burlington & Milton – July 11, 2025

It’s been a steady, watchful week in the Halton real estate market. Here’s what’s been happening in Oakville, Burlington, and Milton:

Oakville
Oakville saw 179 new listings in the past 7 days. Meanwhile, 49 homes sold firm and another 49 sold conditionally. With nearly 500 active listings, buyers are gaining leverage. The market is moving, but not quickly—motivated sellers are having to price strategically and adjust based on feedback and competing listings. Well-priced homes still sell, but the margin for error is narrowing.

Burlington
In Burlington, 125 new listings hit the market and 60 sold firm, with 49 more conditionally sold. While inventory is rising, homes under $1M—particularly freehold townhomes and smaller detached properties—are seeing consistent activity. Buyers are active, but selective. Sellers who are holding too high on price are being left behind.

Milton
Milton continues to punch above its weight. With 110 new listings, 48 firm sales, and 40 conditional sales, turnover remains healthy. Active inventory is just over 300 listings, so the absorption rate here is stronger than in the other two markets. Properties between $600K and $900K are seeing the most action, especially for first-time buyers and investors.

What Does This Mean Going Forward?
The overall market across all three cities is shifting into more balanced conditions. Buyers are being cautious and taking their time. If you're thinking of selling, your home needs to be priced right, marketed well, and show its best from day one. If you’re buying, there’s more choice now, but that may not last if interest rates drop later this year.

Would you like a breakdown for your specific neighbourhood or property type? Just reach out—I’m happy to provide you with a detailed update.

Halton Market Update – June 2025

Oakville | Burlington | Milton
By Michael Englund – Real Estate & Mortgage Advisor

As we close the first half of 2025, market activity across Oakville, Burlington, and Milton continues to reflect a rebalancing after the aggressive rate tightening of the past couple years. June showed some important signals — both for homeowners wondering about property values, and buyers trying to decide if now is the time to move.

Let’s break it down city by city.

Oakville

Oakville remains the most expensive of the three markets, particularly in the detached segment, where the median price for a detached home was $1.79M. That’s up slightly from May, and well above last year’s median, despite slower sales volume. Inventory levels are still climbing, with 731 detached listings compared to just 124 sales. That’s over 5.8 months of inventory, putting Oakville firmly in balanced-to-buyer's market territory.

Condo apartments, by contrast, are showing real value right now with a median price of $562K, likely due to soft demand and oversupply. That segment could present an opportunity for first-time buyers or investors.

What it means: Sellers need to be strategic — pricing and presentation matter more than ever. Buyers, meanwhile, are regaining leverage and should be confident negotiating.

Burlington

Burlington's market is trending more steadily. Detached homes saw 125 sales at a median price of $1.25M, with 479 active listings. Compared to Oakville, that's a tighter ratio, suggesting more balanced market conditions.

Condo apartments and townhouses remain more affordable here than Oakville, with median condo prices around $540K–$765K. Activity is healthy but not overheated, giving buyers more room to explore without urgency.

What it means: Burlington continues to attract move-up buyers and downsizers looking for lifestyle value. The pace is stable, and pricing remains more resilient than in Oakville.

Milton

Milton is seeing the most consistent buyer activity relative to its size. Detached home sales came in at 87 units, with a median price of $1.22M — very close to last month. With 338 active detached listings, the supply-to-sales ratio is hovering around 3.9 months of inventory, which leans toward a balanced market.

Townhouses and semis remain very active here, with median prices under $900K, making them highly attractive to first-time buyers and young families.

What it means: Milton continues to shine as a value-driven alternative for buyers who are priced out of the more expensive Oakville and Burlington markets. New construction and newer infrastructure make it popular with young families and newcomers.

Overall Trends & Outlook

• Inventory is growing faster than sales in most categories, especially in the higher price points

• Median prices are holding steady, showing the market isn’t collapsing — but competition is increasing

• Buyers are cautious but engaged, especially when homes are well-priced and show well

• Sellers must be realistic and avoid outdated pricing expectations from the 2021–2022 boom

With interest rates expected to decline again later this year, we may see buyer demand pick up — especially if sellers adjust pricing in response to current conditions.

Burlington Real Estate Market Update – June 21–27, 2025

This Week’s Activity:

• New Listings: 125

• Price Changes: 64

• Firm Sales: 61

• Sold Conditional: 54

• Expired: 4

• Suspended: 6

• Terminated: 57

What’s Going On in Burlington?

The market in Burlington continues to show strength and resilience, with firm and conditional sales (115 total) nearly matching new listings (125) — a strong signal that buyer demand remains solid.

While 64 price reductions indicate that sellers are still adjusting to market sensitivity, the absorption rate this week puts Burlington in a much more balanced position compared to Oakville.

The relatively low number of expired and suspended listings shows better pricing discipline or stronger buyer interestin this region. The 57 terminations may reflect sellers repositioning their strategy to align more competitively.

Interpreting the Trend

Unlike Oakville, which has shown more signs of buyer control in recent weeks, Burlington remains closer to a balanced market — if not tipping slightly in sellers’ favour for well-priced properties.

Buyers are acting quickly when homes are presented well and priced appropriately, particularly in the $600K–$800K range. Inventory levels are healthy, but they’re not overwhelming — yet.

What You Should Know

If you're a buyer:
This is still a window to negotiate, especially on properties that have been on the market more than a week or two — but competition is real in certain price bands. Pre-approvals are more important than ever.

If you're a seller:
The right presentation and pricing still delivers results in Burlington. Don’t assume you need to undercut the market — but do make sure your home stands out.

 Milton Real Estate Market Update – June 21–27, 2025

This Week’s Stats:

• New Listings: 109

• Price Changes: 36

• Firm Sales: 36

• Sold Conditional: 23

• Expired: 6

• Suspended: 7

• Terminated: 48

Market Insight

While new listings in Milton continue to come in steadily, this week’s data shows a noticeable dip in firm and conditional sales compared to previous weeks. Just 59 properties sold or went conditional, while 109 were newly listed — meaning buyer activity isn’t keeping pace with supply right now.

The 36 price reductions and 48 terminated listings point to sellers hitting resistance at current price levels. This is consistent with the trend we’ve seen over the past few months: sellers testing the waters, but buyers being cautious — especially without aggressive rate cuts.

Market Direction

Milton remains a soft-to-balanced market, especially in the $650K–$850K range, where there’s more inventory than demand at the moment. Many buyers are still sitting on the sidelines, waiting for better affordability or rate movement — even though this lull could represent real opportunity.

We’re also seeing a continuation of a broader trend: the effects of overbuilding over the past 20+ years, especially in areas with newer housing stock. This gives Milton a unique affordability and selection advantage — but only for buyers ready to act decisively.

What This Means for You

Buyers:
There’s leverage to be had here. With more inventory than sales, and a market that’s not moving too quickly, this is a great time to negotiate without the pressure of bidding wars. Just make sure you’re pre-approved and positioned to act when the right place hits.

Sellers:
Pricing matters — big time. If your home is presented well, shows clean, and is priced within the range of recent comparables, it will move. But expectations need to be calibrated to today’s cautious buyer.

Let’s break down this week’s Canadian inflation numbers and what they might mean for mortgage rates and the housing markets in Oakville, Burlington, and Milton in the months ahead.

The latest CPI reading came in at 1.7% year-over-year for May—same as April. That may sound uneventful, but it’s actually good news. It tells us inflation isn’t accelerating again, and that gives the Bank of Canada more room to continue cutting interest rates.

Core inflation also cooled off a bit—especially in areas like rent and travel—while gas prices remain well below last year’s levels thanks in part to the removal of the consumer carbon levy. That, combined with weaker-than-expected retail sales and a sluggish labour market, is reinforcing the idea that our economy is slowing just enough to keep inflation under control.

Here’s what it all means:

• Variable mortgage rates could start trending lower if the Bank of Canada follows through with another one or two rate cuts this year (which seems likely).

• Fixed mortgage rates—which are more tied to bond yields—are already showing signs of easing slightly.

• Real estate demand could start to pick up as affordability improves and more buyers regain confidence.

• Supply vs. demand: We’ve had excess inventory in many areas lately, but increased demand driven by falling rates could help absorb some of that over the second half of the year.

This may mark a turning point toward a more balanced market. If you’re a buyer, now’s the time to keep a close eye on the trends. If you’re a homeowner thinking about refinancing, you’ll want to explore your options before rates shift again. And if you’re an investor, these changing dynamics could impact your next move in a big way.

If you have any questions about how this affects your mortgage or real estate plans—or just want to run some numbers—reach out any time.

Burlington Real Estate Market Report – Week of June 20, 2025

Another week, another wave of price adjustments in Burlington — a sign that the market remains active, but not without friction.

1️⃣ Price Sensitivity Remains High

This week:

• 65 price changes

• 75 terminations

As we saw last week, sellers continue to adjust expectations. When we group price changes and terminations together (because most terminations are simply re-lists at lower prices), 140+ properties were repositioned — nearly as many as the 162 new listings.

The trend is clear: the market is rejecting overpricing.

2️⃣ New Listings vs. Sales Activity

• 162 new listings

• 62 firm sales

• 51 conditional sales

• Total sales = 113

• Sales-to-new-listings ratio = 70%

This is a stronger absorption rate than Oakville this week (which was 46%) and is an improvement over Burlington's own numbers from last week.

3️⃣  Week-over-Week Comparison: Burlington

Summary for Buyers and Sellers

Sellers:
The absorption rate is solid, but buyers are clearly pushing back on pricing. The homes that are selling quickly are the ones that are priced correctly from the outset — not the ones being re-listed after sitting.

Buyers:
Inventory continues to build slightly. You have options — especially on listings that have just been adjusted or re-listed. Pay attention to days on market and price history to spot leverage points.

Milton Real Estate Market Report – Week of June 20, 2025

Milton’s market continues to reflect the broader Halton region trend — plenty of listings, lots of pricing pressure, and a widening gap between seller expectations and actual buyer engagement.

1️⃣ Relists and Price Drops Remain a Core Theme

This week in Milton:

• 41 price changes

• 81 terminations

Many of the terminated listings are simply being relisted at a lower price point — making the real count of pricing adjustments well over 100 properties, compared to just 128 new listings.

That’s nearly 1:1 — for every new listing, there’s another home that’s been adjusted to meet where buyers are actually willing to transact.

2️⃣ New Listings vs. Sales

• 128 new listings

• 47 firm sales

• 43 conditional sales

• Total sales = 90

• Sales-to-new-listings ratio = 90 / 128 = 70%

Despite the pricing pressure, Milton continues to show resilience in demand, mirroring Burlington’s 70% ratio this week — significantly stronger than Oakville’s 46%.

3️⃣ Week-over-Week Comparison: Milton

Metric	June 13	June 20	Trend
New Listings	120	128	⬆️ Slight rise
Firm Sales	42	47	⬆️ Up modestly
Conditional Sales	41	43	⬆️ Steady growth
Total Sales	83	90	⬆️ Strengthening
Price Changes	39	41	⬆️ Ongoing trend
Terminated Listings	75	81	⬆️ Re-list activity
Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio	69%	70%	↔️ Holding strong

 

 

Summary

Sellers:
If your listing is sitting, it’s likely a pricing issue. The data continues to show homes that are priced right are selling — but if you miss the mark, you’ll find yourself relisting and adjusting like many others.

Buyers:
Inventory remains healthy and price drops are frequent. Keep a close eye on properties that have just come back to market — they may be more negotiable than they appear.

The High Cost of Waiting: What $5,000/Month in Rent Really Means in Today’s Market

In today’s real estate market across Oakville, Milton, and Burlington, many would-be buyers are sitting on the sidelines—renting and hoping that home prices will drop before they jump in.

Let’s take a common scenario: a buyer currently renting for $5,000/month, holding out for a $2,000,000 detached home to become more “affordable.” That’s $60,000 spent on rent over the course of a year. So, did the market give them that $60,000 price break they were hoping for?

Well, not quite.

Yes, on a national level, average home prices are down about 3% year over year, but real estate is local—and our local markets tell a very different story:

Detached Home Prices, Year Over Year:

• Oakville: up from $1,891,000 → $1,975,000

• Burlington: up from $1,440,000 → $1,600,000

• Milton: down from $1,382,000 → $1,258,000

So, in Oakville and Burlington, waiting actually cost buyers more—those markets increased in value. In Milton, prices did come down by about 9%, but if you were renting at $5,000/month while waiting, that’s $60,000 gone to rent—essentially equal to the price drop, with nothing to show for it.

The Takeaway?

Waiting only “works” if prices fall faster than the cost of renting—and that’s not happening in most parts of the GTA. Real estate is not just about timing the market; it’s about time in the market. While renters wait for the perfect moment, buyers are building equity, paying down their mortgages, and locking in their homes.

Why Betting Against Canadian Real Estate Could Be a Fool’s Errand

Canada’s residential real estate market has long been regarded as one of the most stable and desirable in the world. While there are always ups and downs, it’s worth paying attention to the underlying forces that continue to support its strength.

A Shift in Buyer Behaviour—and a Policy Response

One significant change over the past few years is that more buyers are choosing to put 20% down or more, bypassing the need for mortgage default insurance. This shift has impacted CMHC (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation), which has seen billions in lost premiums as fewer buyers opt for insured mortgages.

In response, CMHC has now increased the insured mortgage threshold from $1,000,000 to $1,500,000, making insured products more accessible to a broader range of buyers. This move isn't just about recovering lost revenue—it’s about ensuring continued access to homeownership in major urban markets where the average home price often exceeds the previous limit.

International and Institutional Interest

Canadian residential real estate is more than just a local market—it’s a global asset class. Pension funds, REITs, foreign investors, and even government-linked entities have significant exposure to this market. These institutions have a vested interest in the long-term health and stability of the Canadian housing system.

Whether for income stability, long-term growth, or capital preservation, the success of Canadian housing is aligned with the interests of powerful players both here and abroad. These backers provide additional ballast to the market, helping mitigate volatility and encouraging long-term confidence.

The Takeaway

With significant domestic demand, global investment interest, and policy decisions designed to support liquidity and access, betting against Canadian real estate is not a position to take lightly. While short-term corrections may happen, the long-term fundamentals remain robust.

For buyers sitting on the sidelines, it’s important to separate market noise from real trends. In a market supported by both policy and investment capital, waiting too long might mean being priced out entirely.